DSCC: China's share of panel production capacity will increase to 71% by 2025

Total LCD and OLED panel capacity will grow by 10 percent to 385 million square meters in 2021 and by 3-5 percent in 2022-2025, according to a forecast released by market research firm DSCC. The Chinese mainland's share of panel capacity is expected to grow from 53 percent in 2020 to 71 percent in 2025, the only region in the world where capacity growth is expected to exceed expectations.

LCD TVs will continue to dominate display panel production, the report said. With improved market performance and strong demand for LCD TVs driven by Miniled, LCD TV panels are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.9% from 2020-2205, higher than the previous quarter's forecast of 3.6%. OLED TVs are expected to see the fastest growth, with a CAGR of 31 per cent over the period, down from last quarter's forecast of 32 per cent, with market share rising from 2 per cent in 2020 to 7 per cent in 2025.

OLEDs for mobile phones are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11 per cent and reach a market share of 6 per cent by 2025, down from a previous forecast of 7 per cent. The CAGR of mobile LCD is expected to be 3%, with a market share of 4%.

Regionally, the Chinese mainland's share of panel capacity is expected to rise from 53 percent in 2020 to 71 percent in 2025, the only region in the world where capacity growth is expected to exceed expectations. China's panel capacity is now forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11.4 per cent, up from 10.1 per cent forecast last quarter, although it will fall to 12.2 per cent in South Korea and remain flat in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan.

For the Chinese mainland, the report predicts that its LCD market share will grow from 55% in 2020 to 74% in 2025. The market share of OLED will rise from 29% in 2020 to 49% in 2025. By 2025, mobile OLED market share will reach 53 percent and flexible OLED market share will reach 60 percent.

Analysed by manufacturers, BOE overtook South Korea's LGD to become the largest panel supplier by capacity in 2019 by 17.5 percent to 16.6 percent. Following the completion of the acquisition of China Power Panda and the impact of investment in the G10.5 generation LCD, G6 and G8.5 generation OLED, BOE is expected to expand from 9% to 11% per year in the period of 2020-2025. Through the acquisition of SDC Suzhou and with the new LCD and OLED plants growing at a CAGR of 18%, HuXing is expected to become the world's second panel supplier by capacity by 2022.

LGD is expected to see a slower decline in total capacity as it keeps its LCD panel plants closed for an extended period, but its capacity rankings are expected to continue to slide. According to DSCC, LGD will slip to third place in terms of capacity in 2022 and fifth place in 2024 and 2025.